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《SHINE》光能杂志 2011年5月刊 寄语 —— 满月雕弓
这是个扑朔迷离的春天。
我们在热切期盼着中国将光伏发展纳入十二五规划 后，政府、各部委和相关部门对多晶硅、电站和并网等工 作拟出了新的发展策略，虽然上网电价仍然遥遥无期，但 中国的光伏安装量每年都在实实在在的增长。很多企业意 识到了国内的机遇，开始网罗电站安装人才，但从无到 有，队伍建立，经验积累都是一个长期的过程。
我们同样也在观望意大利的政策调整和德国市场补 贴的下调，一个令人困扰的趋势是在欧洲这个主要市场， 补贴下降速度已经远大于成本下降速度，如果说西班牙的 窘境和德国市场2009年底的反弹来自于多晶硅的大幅下 降，但现在虽然多晶硅价格受影响少许下降，但也仅此而 已。曾经问过一些著名的材料和设备商，如何尽可能的降 低客户的成本？得到的答案大都是通过新的技术或新型材 料，让客户获得更多的电力或花费更少的材料，但这里面 却没有“尽”这个字。有些材料和设备方面仍然维持着高 利润率，未来几年光伏成本下降的希望，很大程度上决定 于这些厂家是否愿意同生产企业一同面对，安装商会不会 一味要求组件厂商消化成本。Solarbuzz预测未来五年光 伏组件价格会较2020年降低37%-50%，而英利、尚德和 SunPower取得转换效率方面新成果的艰难之处也昭示着仅 仅依赖电池、组件企业来做到平价上网是不现实的。
目前从各企业收到的订单来看，欧洲二季度仍未出 现回温的现象，意大利市场的举棋不定让安装商处于观望 期，银行担心费率下调超过预期，无法估算投资回报率， 对贷款持谨慎态度，之前的欧洲大规模退货事件很大程度
受此影响。如果说德国前几次的补贴下调平稳过渡是靠着 多晶硅价格的大幅下滑，那么这次欧洲补贴下降又靠什么 来盈利？
但期间还是有好的讯息传来：日本地震唤起了人们对 核能的反思，光伏股票受到追捧，近期传出日本政府有鉴 于地震导致核灾，引发加强可再生能源产业快速成长等议 题，预估有1GW光伏屋顶项目应运而生。同时美国、澳 大利亚等市场受关注程度也超过以往，印度、非洲和东南 亚等潜在市场也受到了中国企业的重视，可以说在战略方 面，中国企业是非常优秀的，多区域市场的布局也更利于 企业抗击风险。而且德国大选绿党大获全胜，不管该党还 是现任的默克尔政府谁能获胜，可再生能源都有可能做为 竞选的筹码，七月落实的新太阳能补助，还是有机会掀起 新一轮光伏热潮的。英利首席战略官王亦逾也比较肯定的 说：“德国市场虽然不会有大的爆发，但肯定是会平稳增 长的。”另外一个不知道是否算好消息的消息：德国、奥 地利、捷克、波兰等国因核灾影响，电价上调。传统能源 的紧缺让我们光伏从业者具有更多的紧迫感，但同样也促 进了平价上网能够早日实现。
虽然春天和夏天总会来临，但永远要做好熬过冬季的 准备，很多中国的企业扩张速度太快，弦绷得太紧。LDK就 曾因为“库存门”事件打乱了发展计划，不然不会到现在 仍旧资金紧张。几年的发展下来，很多光伏企业的这张弓 已经挽如满月，不管是命中靶心还是弓弦断裂，我们都要 送上祝福。
The Bow on Full String
It is a spring in which noting can be predicted. We are eager to the government, ministries, and relevant departments making new plans and deployments for polysilicon, power plant and the electricity connecting to grid. Though the tariff deciding is far from right now, PV installed capacity is growing year by year. Many enterprises recognized domestic opportunities and began to attract elites in solar plant installation. It will be a long process to build team and gain experience from zero on.
We also take a wait-and-see attitude for the adjustment of Italy policy and re reduction of Germany FiT. A disturbing tendency is that the reduction rate of FIT is faster than that of the cost. If the dilemma in Span and the recovery in Germany market are result from the big drop of polysilicon price, now, the polysilicon price reduced a little, and that is all. I have asked some famous enterprises of material and equipments how to reduce costs for customers. They said to make customers get electricity more or consume material less by using new technology and new material. There was not a “most” in their words. Some enterprises of material and equipment are remaining big profit margins, so the cost reduction of PV industry is largely depend on whether these enterprises would like to face together and whether install enterprises are continuously request component businesses to absorb the cost. Solarbuzz predicted that the component price would reduce 37%-50% in five years. The difficulties Yingli, Suntech, and SunPower faced in improving the conversion rate suggest that, it is impossible to connect to the grid at an equal price, only depending on cell and module companies.
According to the orders companies received, the recovery period is still not appear. The fog in Italy market makes install enterprises wait. Banks afraid the reduction of rates will be bigger than prediction and they will not have the capacity to estimate the investment returns, so they hold a prudent attitude in providing loans. The former refund incident is largely affected by this. If the former FIT reductions in Germany were smoothly passed with the reduction of polysilicon price, what will be relay to get profit this time? There is a piece of good news for us: the earthquake happened in Japan arouses people’s reflection on nuclear energy, and stocks of PV enterprises are popular among people. Recently, there comes news that Japan government will promote the development of renewable energy industries, and there will be a 1GW roof installation project. At the same time, concerns on American and Australian markets are raised at a new height, and markets in India, Africa, and Southeast Asia have drawn Chinese companies’ attention. It is to say, in the strategic aspect, Chinese companies are excellent, and deployment at different regions is good for businesses to against risk. In Germany, the Greens succeed. In fact, no matter whether the Greens succeeded or not, ”renewable resource” is a bargaining chip for campaign. The new solar allowance will be effective in July, and will set off a PV wave. Wang Yiyu, Chief Strategy Officer of Yingli, said in a certain tongue: ”There may be not a boom in German market, but PV will be increased steadily in there.” Another piece of news about which we cannot say good or not: in Germany, Austria, Czech, and Poland, the electricity price is increasing because of the nuclear disaster. The tight supply in traditional resources makes us PV practitioners have a sense of urgent, and also push the connection to grid at an equal price to be achieved sooner.
Although the spring and summer will come finally, we should prepare for the winter. Many Chinese enterprises are expanding fast, the string is too tight. LDK changed its plan because of inventory, or it would not be with a tight budget today. After years of development, many PV enterprises are like bows on the full string. Whether they will shoot the bull’s eye, or the sting will be broken, let’s bless them.
索比光伏网 https://news.solarbe.com/201105/03/17219.html
