2011年投资光伏行业仍需慎重

    德国最大的太阳能公司发出预告说，在目前光伏市场销售良好的情况下，仍需防范太阳能电池和组件的价格下跌。

    QCEG.DE的行政长官说，我很乐观今年下半年的业务，但却十分担心在2011年会遭遇价格下跌危机。

    Andreas Haenel，菲尼克斯太阳能的首席执行官，也提出了厂家需要谨慎投资，他说，在德国的削减政策颁布以后，2010年第三季度的太阳能产品需求量可能就会下降。

    目前状态下可能因为价格补贴造成组件等产品的需求比较大，但分析人士担心，下半年可能就会产生供过于求的情况。

FRANKFURT, May 11 (Reuters) - Germany's top solar companies warned an ongoing drop in prices for cells and modules could hit profits after releasing mostly better-than-expected results on strong demand in their home market, the world's biggest.

"I am quite optimistic for business in the second half of the year," Nedim Cen, the 44-year-old chief executive of Q-Cells (QCEG.DE), said during a conference call. "But I'm concerned that further price decreases could kick in in 2011."

Andreas Haenel, chief executive of solar wholesaler Phoenix Solar, also hit a cautious note, saying he expected a drop in demand for solar products in the third quarter, after sector subsidy cuts in Germany took. [ID:nFAB015619]

The first-quarter results from Q-Cells, Phoenix Solar and solar machine manufacturer Centrotherm (CTNG.DE) beat most analysts' estimates. The companies said they benefited from customers bringing forward orders ahead of sector subsidy cuts in July. [ID:nLDE6452I3]

Chinese peer LDK (LDK.N) hit a similar note late on Monday, posting better-than-expected first-quarter results also buoyed by strong demand in Germany, while SolarWorld (SWVG.DE), Germany's biggest solar company by sales, failed to meet analyst expectations [ID:nN10201246].

Plans by the German government to cut so-called feed-in tariffs, which first emerged in January, have caused solar stocks around the world to tumble. The tariffs are the sector's lifeline until there is grid parity -- the point at which solar power costs the same as fossil-fuel generated power. [ID:nLDE60D273] [ID:nLDE60E0E4]

Customers are now piling in to take advantage of the subsidies before they end, leading to booming demand for modules, which analysts fear could lead to oversupply in the second half of the year and increase pricing pressure.

European players are already struggling to digest the price slump that saw prices for modules and cells drop by up to 50 percent while low-cost Asian players are mercilessly eating away market share.

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Graphic on price developments vs new capacity:

Graphic on China's cell market share vs Germany:

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Investors are now bracing for results later in the day from SunPower (SPWRA.O) as well as China's JA Solar (JASO.O), which in April raised its first-quarter sales forecast. [ID:nN07104758]

Once spoiling investors with lavish returns, the solar sector is in the process of consolidation as governments cap support for the subsidy-dependent industry to move it closer to being economically independent.

Investors remain cautious and Spanish renewable energy firm Renovalia had to postpone its initial public offering (IPO) planned for this week due to volatile financial markets. [ID:nLDE6461IG] (Editing by Karen Foster)