美国“双反”调查 中美贸易危急中期待产业调整
10月19日，Solarworld等美国7家太阳能光伏生产商联名上书，声称中国以低廉的价格在美国“倾销”太阳能电池。涉案产品为自中国进口的多晶硅光伏电池（含电池板），包括但不限于模块、层压板、面板和建筑一体化材料。控诉要求美国国际贸易委员会及美国商务部制裁中国光伏企业的"倾销"行为，要求美国联邦政府对进口中国的太阳组件征收"超过100%"的进口关税。
11月8日，美国商务部正式对中国输美太阳能组件发起反倾销和反补贴调查，这是美方首次针对中国清洁能源产品发起“双反”调查。经过半个多月博弈，美国商务部最终还是祭出了“双反”大旗。之前暗舒一口气的中国企业再次进入备战状态，这让处于动荡的中国光伏企业，不得不再次迎来新一轮的暴风雨。
中美贸易小插曲 未来光伏市场趋于平缓
国家发展和改革委员会能源研究所副所长李俊峰曾表示，此次如果立案，不仅伤害中国企业，也伤害美国企业。中美在新能源产业领域互有需求，互利合作。美国政府对中国的清洁能源产品采取限制措施，不仅破坏中美新能源领域的良好合作氛围，也损害美国产业自身利益。这种限制措施与全球共同应对气候变化和能源安全挑战的大趋势背道而驰。
中美贸易历来就摩擦不断，美国政府经常利用国内国际不同法案对中国企业进行反倾销调查。在过去的20多年中，中美曾不止一次地在贸易上迎头相撞。背后有玄机，前景是互争互利。
1983年1月，中美谈判未能就中国输美纺织品配额问题达成协议，美国政府单方面宣布对中国的限制措施。中国政府回应强硬，包括停止批准自美国进口棉花、大豆、化纤的新合同，并削减从美国进口小麦、大豆等主要农产品。这场冲突的背后实际上是美国纺织业与农业利益的冲突，美国纺织业力主限制中国输美纺织品的数量。最后，在农业利益集团的强大压力下，美国政府缓和了立场，并最终解决争端。但是，中国仍然减少了从美国进口的农产品的数量。有趣的是，美国政府同时放松了对华出口管制的限制，以弥补农产品贸易减少的损失。
进入90年代以后，中美围绕最惠国待遇问题发生了一系列激烈的经贸冲突。老布什政府以及后来的克林顿政府，为了“保住”对华最惠国待遇这一两国关系的根基，不惜在其他经济问题上对中国采取强硬姿态，满足国内不同利益集团的需要。这些问题包括中国劳改产品的出口、市场准入、纺织品转运贸易、知识产权保护等诸多问题。中国给予美方以一定的“理解”或“配合”，经过艰苦的谈判，双方达成了劳改产品出口、市场准入、知识产权保护等双边谅解备忘录。在谈判过程中，特别是在知识产权问题上，美国两次威胁制裁，公布了高达10亿美元的制裁清单。中方也不示弱，同样公布了等额的反制裁清单。中国的反制裁行动起到了良好的反制作用，美国国内反对两国“贸易战”的利益集团出来“说项”、“灭火”。沸沸扬扬的“贸易战”最终因两国及时达成协议而“熄火”。
2002年，刚刚加入世界贸易组织的中国，策略地抵制了美国对钢铁业的保护措施，令美国当局对中国刮目相看。该年4月，小布什政府发动了“201”条款的临时“保障”措施，对来自欧盟、日本和中国等国的钢铁征收临时性的附加关税。中国与同是“受害者”的欧盟等各方积极协调立场，一纸诉状把美国告上了WTO贸易争端解决机制，WTO最终裁定美国的做法违反自由贸易的有关规定，限期其撤销决定。当时，中国的果断做法令美国贸易代表办公室的官员颇为“吃惊”，认为中国行为“过分”，没有给美国“面子”。
事实上，中国光伏企业并不存在所谓的不正当竞争，当前的价格完全是正常的市场竞争形成的。美方企业拿自己行业弊端来指责中国企业，把中国当成替罪羊,这不是第一次,也不会是最后一次。
同比中美双方以往的贸易摩擦，就中国商务部而言，对外观点无论是反补贴还是反倾销，实际上都不会伤害中美两国的贸易主流。北京WTO研究会首席顾问程大为认为，目前，中国是世界上最大的发展中国家，而美国是世界上最大的发达国家，中美互为重要贸易伙伴，互补性强是中美经贸关系结构中的重要基础。
目前，我国光伏组件出口美国规模在20亿美元，而美国出口我国的光伏电池原材料和设备，规模在40亿美元左右，美方保持顺差18.8亿美元。 此外，中国光伏企业在美设厂也有效增加了美国的就业人数，并未对其光伏产业产生较大冲击。如果成功推进此案，太阳能电池板会翻倍，美国的太阳能需求会减少，进而严重破坏美国的太阳能市场。中国在美上市的众多光伏企业利益受损，就将使美国投资者利益受损，并威胁到美国太阳能行业的100000个就业岗位，美国的电力开发商也会遭受损失。在这种情况下，美国太阳能行业中反对SolarWorld进行的贸易申诉的占多数，因为美国现在从事太阳能行业的10万人中，大多数人都在销售、市场、设计、安装和维护阶段，这些工作的存续与否很大程度上取决于太阳能组件价格的高低，如果太阳组件的价格因为申诉而被提高，很多工人就要失业。
事实摆在眼前，那么美国为什么还要搬起石头砸自己的脚呢？美国政府无视开发商和用户受益于低价电池组件的事实，甚至将不景气的经济和困扰已久的就业问题全部抛诸脑后，一意孤行进行所谓的“双反调查”，好似颇有深意。
2011年早些时候美国太阳能创业企业Solyndra的破产吸引了众多关注的目光，美国总统奥巴马曾经访问了这家公司的一家工厂，美国能源部也扩大了对该公司的联邦贷款担保。然而该公司的破差也使得奥巴马政府承受了更多来自其他政党的政治压力，这次进行的“双反”举措更像是安抚国内相关太阳能企业的情绪。这次中美贸易争端更像是各自政府出于国内需求而提出的一场国际政治交流。事实上像这种正式的对话对全球各大股市交易市场的影响力远大于政策本身对实际太阳能进出口市场造成的影响。
综合中美贸易摩擦的历史事件和近期太阳能行业出现的“双反事件”，相信此次贸易纠纷不会得到继续扩大。因为在今年前欧债危机引发太阳能及多晶硅价格猛跌事件，已经给2011年疲惫的太阳能市场造成了一定冲击。所以在2011年即将结束的时候，如果该贸易摩擦扩大到全球领域，将对整个全球市场优化发展造成冲击。对美国而言，只是想通过这次“双反事件”大捞一笔，打击中国光伏企业，获得更多间接利益。
中国光伏产业在危急中期待升级
中国光伏产业长期存在“两头在外”的不平衡局面，原材料硅料95%都是由国外进口，而光伏产品又有95%都是出口至国外，产业的上下游均极大的依赖外部市场。所以每次外部环境风吹草动，对中国光伏产业就会有很大影响。
中国光伏也要想平稳增长，掌握贸易主动权是关键。首先是尽快扩大国内市场的需求，使更多的产能在国内消化，把我国从全球最大的光伏制造国转变为全球最大的光伏应用国。加强与西部大开发、新农村建设相结合，在新农村建设中迅速发展起来。多推出有效务实的光伏产业政策,让光伏产品走进千家万户。事实上,眼下国家推出的一系列鼓励政策,尤其是光伏发电上网电价的确定,已让人们对光伏应用的前景充满了希望。其次，必须加强企业科技创新能力,早日制定技术标准,拥有定价话语权,不至于国内市场在接受这类产品时反而被国外竞争对手掘了便宜。中国可再生能源学会副理事长孟宪淦说：“中国光伏产业依靠扩大产能，低成本、低附加值的生产方式已经走到尽头，科技创新才是最终之路。”最重要的还有就是提高企业竞争力，开辟更多的潜在市场。国内市场的扩大是循序渐进的，并不能一下子抵消对美出口的影响。中方企业应加强非洲和亚洲市场的开发，更应该合理调整结构，做到有质量的增长。做到这些，才能从根本上避免贸易摩擦。
目前许多家国内光伏企业正在积极斡旋，争取一线生机。同时中方也在全面评估反制的可能性，还会保留在世贸组织规则框架内采取相应措施的权利。有关人士提出，我国光伏行业在经历过“双反”调查事件后，必然会形成优胜劣汰的市场格局，整个行业以出口为主的市场格局必然会发生变化。目前我国光伏行业盲目建设、低水平重复、同质化竞争现象十分严重。“双反”调查可以倒逼国内光伏生产企业加快产品结构调整，提高产品质量，向高端领域发展。这对中国的光伏企业而言，也是一次战略转移的好时机。
The United States “Double-anti-dumping " Survey Sino-U.S. Trade Is Looking Forward to Industry Adjust
· On 19 October, such as Solarworld and seven U.S. home Solar energy producers signed a letter that China was selling solar cells to the United States with a cheap prices. Since China exported products were involved to this case, the involved products including the polycrystalline silicon photovoltaic cells (including solar cells), including but not limited to panel module, laminate, panel and building integrated materials. The accused asked the U.S. International Trade Commission and U.S. Commerce Ministry do a sanction for Chinese "dumping" photovoltaic enterprise’s behavior. All these wanted the federal government of United States to impose "more than 100%”‘s import tariff on Chinese solar panels.
On November 8, the U.S. Commerce Ministry takes anti-dumping and countervailing investigation to the exported solar panels from China to U.S.. This is the first time that U.S. takes double- anti-dumping investigation to Chinese’s clean energy products. After two months’ game, the U.S. Commerce Ministry finally raised the big double-anti-dumping flag. So the Chinese enterprises have a comfortable breath before falling into the prepared war state. Then the Chinese PV enterprises in the turbulent state have to face a new round of storm again.
Little Episode of Sino-U.S. Trade Future Photovoltaic Markets Tend to Be Gentle
The deputy director of Energy Research Institute of NDRC, Junfeng Li said, if the case was put on record, not only harm China enterprise, also hurt American enterprise. The demand of China and the United States are needed with each other on new energy industry, and with mutual benefit and cooperation. The United States government put restrictive measures on China's clean energy products, it not only damages the new energy field of good cooperation atmosphere, also harms the industry's own interests. The restrictions are on the opposite trend with global climate change and energy security challenges.
· China and the United States have trade friction continuously; the United States government often does anti-dumping investigation on China's domestic and international enterprise using a different bill. In the past 20 years, China and the United States have more than once in the trade on a head-on collision. Behind the mystery, the prospect is benefit and competitive to each other.
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In January 1983, the Sino-U.S. negotiations have failed to reach an agreement about textile quota from China to U.S. The United States government response toughly, including stop approval from the United States imported cotton, soybeans, chemical fiber new contract, and cut imports from the U.S. wheat, soybeans and other major agricultural products. This conflict is actually the United States in the conflicts of interests behind textile industry and agriculture, the U.S. textile industry argued that limit the number of Chinese textile. Finally, in agricultural interests’ groups of strong pressure, the United States government relented position, and finally solve the dispute. However, China still reduced the number of agricultural products imported from the United States. Interestingly, the United States government relaxed the limited control of Chinese export, and is to make up for the loss of the decrease of the agricultural product trade.
In the 90’s, there had a series of intense about economic and trade conflicts around the most-favoured-nation treatment problem. Old Bush Administration and the later Clinton administration, in order to "save" the most-favoured-nation treatment to China, which is the basic relations between the two countries, they take a tough stance in the other economic problems with China, in order to satisfy the need of different interest groups. These include the export of Chinese products, labor market access, textiles transshipment trade, intellectual property rights protection, and many other problems. China has given the United States a certain "understanding" or "cooperate", after hard negotiation, the two sides agreed to the penal product export, market access, and the intellectual property rights protection of bilateral mous. In the negotiations process, especially on intellectual property rights, the two threatened sanctions of U.S., announced $1 billion sanctions list. The Chinese are also running, also released the list for the sanctions. Chinese anti-sanctions play a good counterspell effect, the U.S. domestic is against the two countries "trade war", "critics" and“fire extinguishing” out of interest group. The news "trade war" between the two countries reached an agreement in time and “flameout ".
In 2002, China has just joined the World Trade Organization, and boycotted the protection measures of steel industry, which make U.S. authority, sit up and take notice to China. This April of 2002, the Bush Administration launched the "201" clause of the temporary "security" measures, from the European Union, Japan and China and other countries of the temporary additional tariffs on steel. China is "victim" with the European Union and the parties actively coordinate position, a complaint against the United States sued the WTO trade dispute settlement mechanism, the WTO ruled that the United States finally action violates the relevant provisions of the free trade, its revocation decision within a time limit. At that time, China's decisive approach made the U.S. trade representative office officials rather "surprised" that the Chinese behavior was "too much", not left a “face" to the United States.
In fact, China does not have the unfair competition on so-called photovoltaic enterprise. The current price is perfectly normal of the market competition formation. The enterprise take his shortcomings to accuse Chinese industry enterprise, and take China as a scapegoat, this is not the first time, won't be the last.
Compared the trade friction between China and American, external point of view for China's Ministry of Commerce is that either anti-dumping or countervailing fact will not hurt Sino-U.S. trade mainstream. Cheng Dawei, chief adviser of Beijing WTO institute, says that at present, China is the world's largest developing country, the United States is the world's largest developed countries, China and the U.S. are important trade partners, and are highly complementary structure of Sino-U.S. economic and trade relations, all of which are an important foundation.
At present, the PV modules that China exports to the United States is $2 billion, while U.S. exports to China photovoltaic cell materials and equipment, the scale of which is $4 billion, the United States is to maintain a surplus $1.88 billion. In addition, the Chinese PV companies setting up factories in the United States is also effective to increase employment in the United States, and did not have a greater impact on their photovoltaic industry. If successfully forward the case, solar panels price will be doubled and U.S. solar demand will be reduced, which would seriously undermine the U.S. solar market. US-listed Chinese PV business interests of many damaged, it will damage the interests of U.S. investors, and a threat to the U.S. solar energy industry, 100,000 jobs, the U.S. power developer will lose money. In this case, U.S. solar industry's trade complaint against SolarWorld are majority, because the U.S. is now engaged in the solar industry, 100,000 people, most in sales, marketing, designing, installation and maintenance phases, these the existence or not largely depends on the level of solar modules prices, solar components if the price was increased because of complaints, many workers will lose their jobs.
The fact is obvious, then why should the U.S. shooting itself on the foot? The U.S. government ignores the developers and users to benefit from the fact that low-cost battery components, and even troubled by the depressed economy and the employment of all the problems which have been long been forgotten, and insists on the so-calnled “double-anti-dumping ", as if quite profound meaning.
Earlier 2011, the bankruptcy of the U.S. solar energy company Solyndra attracted lots of attention, U.S. President Barack Obama had visited a factory of this company, the U.S. Department of Energy has expanded the company's federal loan guarantees. However, the company also makes the difference between breaking the Obama administration to bear more pressure from other political parties, the conduct of the " double-anti-dumping " initiatives like solar energy business is related to placate domestic sentiment. The Sino-U.S. trade dispute is more like their government's domestic demand for an international political communication. In fact the influence of this formal dialogue to the world's major stock market's is far greater than the actual impact of policy itself about solar energy importing and exporting the markets.
Comprehensive history of Sino-U.S. trade friction solar industry events and recent emergence of “double-anti-dumping investigate," I believe the trade dispute will not get to continue to expand. Because in the first debt crisis in Europe, which caused by the incident solar and polysilicon prices plunged, has already tired of the solar market in 2011 caused some impact. So near the end of 2011, if the expansion of global trade friction areas, will optimize the development of the global market impact. For the U.S., just want to by the " double-anti-dumping ", a great fishing against the Chinese PV companies, more indirect benefits.
So all above, the China-U.S. trade dispute is a local adjustment in plain international PV market 2011, only a small friction in Sino-U.S. trade, the future of the global PV market will continue to be flatten.
Chinese PV Industry Is Looking to Upgrade in the Critical
Chinese PV industry is in a long-standing "two out" imbalances situation, 95% of raw silicon material are imported from abroad, while another 95% of PV products are exported to foreign countries, both upstream and downstream industries, greatly dependent on the external market. So every sign of trouble from external environment may have a significant impact on Chinese PV industry.
Steady growth of China’s PV also needs to master the trade initiative, which is the key. The first is to expand domestic market demand as soon as possible so that more capacity to digest in the country, turn our country from the world's largest manufacturer of PV into the world's largest photovoltaic applications. Strengthen ties with western development, the new rural construction, the new rural construction developed rapidly. Introduce more effective and practical photovoltaic industry policy to allow photovoltaic products into people's homes. In fact, now the nation launches a series of incentives, especially for photovoltaic electricity price determination, which have allowed people to prospect for photovoltaic applications full of hope. Secondly, we must strengthen scientific and technological innovation, the early development of technical standards, with the pricing right to speak, and will not accept such products in the domestic market by foreign competitors, but when you dig the cheap. China Renewable Energy Society, vice president Meng Xiangan said: "China's photovoltaic industry by expanding production capacity, low cost, low value-added production has come to an end, technological innovation is the end of the road." The most important there is to increase competitiveness of enterprises, opening up more potential markets. Expansion of the domestic market is gradual, and not all of a sudden offset the impact of exports to the U.S.. Chinese enterprises should strengthen the development of Africa and Asia, adjust the structure reasonably, makes the quality of growth. All above, we can prevent trade friction fundamentally.
Lots of domestic PV companies are mediating actively at present for a lifeline. Meanwhile, China is also assessing the possibility of evaluation counterspell, and keeps the right to take appropriate measures within the framework of WTO rules. Relevant persons say that after experiencing the incident “double-anti-dumping investigate", China's photovoltaic industry is bound to form a survival of the fittest in the market, and export-oriented industry in the market is bound to change. Now China's photovoltaic industry are full of serious problem just as unchecked construction, low-level repetitive, and homogeneous competition." double-anti-dumping " forced domestic PV manufacturers to speed up the adjustment of product structure, improve product quality and develop the high-end in the field. To China's photovoltaic enterprises, this is a good chance to shift strategic.
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