国际逆变器市场升温 继续朝前发展
近几年,随着西班牙、德国、美国、日本对本国光伏产业的政策扶持,全球光伏发电逆变器的销售额逐年递增,光伏发电用逆变器进入了一个快速增长的阶段。但目前全球光伏逆变器市场基本被国际几大巨头瓜分,欧洲式全球光伏市场的先驱,具备完善的光伏产业链,光伏逆变器技术处于世界领先地位。SMA是全球最早也是最大的光伏逆变器生产企业(德国市场占有率达50%以上),约占全球市场份额的三分之一,第二位是Fronius。全球前七位的生产企业占领了近70%的市场份额。
随着全球光伏装机量的迅猛增长,逆变器市场也不断扩大。有数据显示:从2010年上半年,总体已经到了 8GW,2009年全年大概是8GW,同比增长了近3倍。据isuppli的预测,在今后三年的时间里将有9倍的增长。
2011年10月,据了解,美国能源部(DoE)拨款230万美元给SolarBridge技术公司,用于开发低成本太阳能光伏微型逆变器。SolarBridge表示,公司将用这笔拨款加速超低成本太阳能光伏微型逆变器和用于将电源转换电子连接到太阳能电池元件的普遍机械装置的开发。
2011年加入逆变器市场的还有德国的博世公司。据消息,来自德国斯图加特的博世公司已计划开始“大规模生产光伏逆变器,博世发言人AndreasKempf已证实公司于1月份设立一个子公司,业务范围涉及逆变器。
市场调研公司IMS在其所公布的一项调查结果中强调,光伏逆变器市场在2010年的十二个月内经历了由长期供应短缺至产能严重过剩的转变。据这家市场调研公司称,截止2011年1月份,2010年第四季度及新年伊始的库存量已达到了有史以来的较高水平。IMS Research的最新报告还发现,2010年全球光伏逆变器市场增长了140%,这主要是受到德国、意大利、捷克和法国等核心欧洲市场的驱动。尽管业内对于产能过剩一事有所顾忌,但全球光伏逆变器市场依旧可在2014年达到85亿美元收益额,年均涨幅高达25%。
中国国内逆变器市场前景喜人
逆变器器市场也较被业内人士看好,国内光伏发电装机规模步入快速增长阶段,风力发电在国家政策明确之后,连续数年翻番式增长,中国的光伏发电市场在正式拥有了自己的“上网电价政策之后,复制这种井喷式发展将是大概率事件。2011年开始,将是我国并网光伏发电发展的高峰期,业内人士预计中国2011和2012年的光伏新增装机量将在2010年仅400MW左右的基础上猛增至1.5GW和3GW以上,大幅拉动并网光伏逆变器需求。
目前,国内逆变器市场目前具有较多优势。首先,逆变器价格较为稳定,毛利率水准在未来可以得到保证。在2011年逆变器价格虽然也随着光伏市场萎靡而略有下跌,但下跌幅度较小,基本比较平稳。
7月初逆变器平均价格为0.239美元/瓦,至10月初平均价格仍然维持在0.235美元/瓦,二季度度跌幅仅为1.67%。这主要是因为光伏逆变器产品价格的快速杀跌阶段已经过去,而作为需要持续研发投入的高端电力电子产品,其产品毛利率的受压缩空间相当有限,产品跌价幅度将逐渐趋缓,未来的成本下降将主要来自于设计改进和元器件的国产化。
其次,参与企业多≠壁垒低,入门容易,做好难,做大更难。光伏逆变器作为一个在中国刚出现不久的产业,相对较低的进入门槛确实吸引了众多国内企业参与研发生产,但产品参数和品质能够获得广泛的机构认证、客户认可,乃至实现批量出货的企业则寥寥无几,全球范围内的情况同样如此。
再者,国产逆变器市场占有率逐渐提高。光伏逆变器作为对长期运行稳定性要求较高的产品,具有较深厚的技术积累、且能够率先获得一定规模稳定运行业绩的企业,才有机会做大做强,而边缘企业则将很快被市场淘汰;国内的先发企业有望借助国内光伏安装市场的启动获得宝贵的运行经验,为将来进军国际市场打下坚实基础。
目前国内光伏并网逆变器市场规模较小,国内生产逆变器的厂商众多,但专门用于光伏发电系统的逆变器制造商并不多,但是不少国内企业已经在逆变器行业已经研究多年,已经具备一定的规模和竞争力,但在逆变器技术质量、规模上与国外企业仍具有较大差距,目前具有较大规模的厂商有合肥阳光、北京科诺伟业、北京索英、志诚冠军、南京冠亚、上海英伟力新能源科技有限公司等企业。目前这些企业用于光伏系统的产量呈逐年上升的趋势。
国内市场规模虽然较小,但未来光伏电站市场的巨大发展空间和发展潜力给国内企业带来发展的历史机遇。目前国内光伏逆变器主要被阳光电源、艾思玛、KACO等品牌所占领,国外企业多数通过代理渠道进入国内市场,由于售后服务提供难度大整体市场占有率不高。2008年统计数字显示,合肥阳光电源公司占据70%以上的光伏逆变器市场份额,国内重点光伏项目大功率产品几乎全部选用国内产品。
从技术方面来看,国内企业在转换效率、结构工艺、智能化程度、稳定性等方面与国外先进水平仍有一定差距,目前我国在小功率逆变器技术上与国外处于同一水平,在大功率并网逆变器上,大功率并网逆变器仍需进一步发展。
Optimistic About the Global Inverter Market
International Inverter Market Warms Up Before To Continue In Development
In recent years, with Spain, Germany, the United States, Japan of its own pv industry policy support, global (pv) power inverter has been increasing on sales, (pv) power use inverter has entered a rapid growth stage. But the global photovoltaic inverter basic market is carved up by international several big giant, laid out the pioneer of global photovoltaic market, has perfect photovoltaic industry chain; pv inverter technology is in the leading position in the world. SMA are the earliest and largest of photovoltaic inverter production enterprise (the German market takes share of more than 50%), accounts for about a third of the global market share, the second is Fronius. Seven of the world's top production enterprise occupied nearly 70% market shares.
With the rapid growth of global photovoltaic installed, inverter market also expands unceasingly. A data shows: from the first half of 2010, overall has eight GW, 2009 is about 8 GW, an increase of nearly three times. According to isuppli forecast, in the next three years, will have the growth of the nine times.
In October 2011, according to understand, the U.S. department of energy (DoE) put $2.3 million to SolarBridge technology company, used for developing low cost solar photovoltaic miniature inverter. SolarBridge says, the company will use the low cost for accelerating solar photovoltaic miniature inverter and used to power conversion electronic connection to the solar cell of components of the common development of mechanical device.
2011, Germany Bosch is to join inverter market. According to the news, from Stuttgart, Germany Bosch has plans to start the "mass production photovoltaic inverter, Bosch spokesman AndreasKempf has confirmed that the company in January to set up a subsidiary, the scope of business involves inverter.
Market research firm IMS in its announced results of a survey emphasized that photovoltaic inverter market in 2010 in the 12 months experience from long-term supply shortage of excess capacity to serious change. According to the market research company says, as of 2011 January, the fourth quarter of 2010 and the beginning of the New Year inventories have reached a record high. The new report also found that IMS Research, 2010 global photovoltaic inverter market grew by 140%, it mainly by Germany, Italy, the Czech republic and France and other core of the European market drivers. Although the industry for excess capacity in holding, but global photovoltaic inverter market still can be reached $2014 in 8.5 billion income amount, with an average annual increase as high as 25%.
China's Domestic Inverter Market Prospect Is Encouraging
The inverter market also is the industry was valued, the domestic (pv) power installed capacity is into rapid growth stage, wind power in national policies cleared, for several years to double type growth, China's (pv) power market in formal had his "power tariff policy, copy this after a blowout type development will be big probability events. Started in 2011, will be the country's grid (pv) power development peak, insiders expect China's 2011 and 2012 years of photovoltaic new installed will be only 400 MW in 2010 or so shot up to 1.5 GW based on 3 GW above, and a pull grid photovoltaic inverter demand.
At present, the domestic inverter with more market is currently advantage. First of all, inverter is in relatively stable price, gross margin level in the future can be guaranteed. In 2011, although also with price inverter photovoltaic market weak and slightly down, but fell by small, basic smoothly.
In early July inverter average price is $0.239 / tile, to early October average prices have remained at the $0.235 / tile, second quarter degree fall is only 1.67%. This is mainly because photovoltaic inverter of the price of the stage has the past winners quickly, and as the need for continued investment in research of high-end power electronic products, the products of the gross profit margin by compression space is limited, the product range will gradually falls to ease, and future costs decline will mainly come from the design improvement and components of the nationalization.
Second, to participate in the enterprise has more barriers to indicates a low, introductory easy, make difficult, do big more difficult. Photovoltaic inverter as a in China just appear near industry, relatively low entry threshold really attracted many domestic enterprises to participate in the research and production, but the products parameters and quality to a wide range of authentication, customer recognition institutions, and realize the batch delivery enterprises are very few and the global situation as well.
Moreover, the domestic market share gradually improve inverter. Photovoltaic inverter to the operation stability as a long-term demand higher product, has a profound technical accumulation, and able to take the lead in a certain scale and stable operation of the performance of the enterprise, to have the opportunity to do bigger and stronger, and edge enterprise then will soon be out of business; The domestic enterprise is expected to start using photovoltaic installation of domestic market start gain valuable operation experience for the future of access to the international market to lay a solid foundation.
At present domestic photovoltaic (pv) grid inverter market on a smaller scale, the domestic production inverter manufacturer of numerous, but specifically used for (pv) power system, the inverter manufacturer is not much, but many domestic enterprises have been in inverter industry has been studied for years, which has had a certain scale and competitive, but in inverter technology quality, scale with foreign enterprise still have a large gap, currently has a large manufacturers in hefei sunshine, Beijing, Beijing SuoYing great kono, zhicheng champions, nanjing, Shanghai and the crown process of new energy technology Co., LTD. and other enterprise. At present, these enterprises for the production of photovoltaic system show ascendant trend.
The domestic market scale is although small, but the future photovoltaic power station is the great development of market space and development potential for domestic enterprise to bring the development history of the opportunity. At present domestic pv inverter is mainly the sun power supply, YiSiMa, KACO brand such as capture, foreign enterprise most through the agency channel into the domestic market, due to the difficulty of after-sales service to provide overall market share is not high. Statistics show that in 2008, hefei sun power supply company accounts for more than 70% of photovoltaic inverter market share, the domestic main photovoltaic project with high power products almost all use domestic products.
From a technical perspective, the domestic enterprise in the conversion efficiency, structure technology, the level of intelligence, stability with foreign advanced level there is still a certain gap, at present our country in small power inverter technology with foreign at the same level, in high power grid inverter, high power grid inverter still needs further development.