第二个西班牙？ ——2011年意大利市场前景堪忧
文/刘珊珊（Sunny Liu）
THE FIRST GLOBALY ISSUED CHINESE-ENGLISH BILINGUAL PV MAGAZINE IN CHINA
关于是否应该为意大利光伏市场设限的争论最近已达到白热化的阶 段。意大利环境部长表示将不会设 限，但也有其他部长表示将支持设 限。而最终的决定预计将在3月第一个 周末达成。2月28日，曾有报道透露政 府正在考虑为该国光伏市场设定8GW 的上限。业内人士担心如果这条法律 获得批准，就意味着光伏补贴即将于 今年夏天结束。据一份意大利政府发 行的新闻稿显示，国会于3月1日就 2020年可再生能源法案进行了讨论。 在讨论会中，意大利环境部长Stefania Prestigiacomo表示将不会为光伏市场 设限。然而，意大利发展部部长Paul Romani在接受意大利路透社的采访时 表示他倾向于为光伏发展设限。
而GSE早前发布了关于2010年 意大利光伏发电装机总量的最新报 告，预计该国超过15万家电厂的累计 安装总量约为3GW。这意味着2010 年意大利的装机总量比2009年增长 了160%。鉴于新电站的并网需求暴 涨，意大利政府去年担保在2010年内 建成但还未并网的所有电站也将享受 2010年的光伏补贴政策，并网的截 止日期延长到2011年6月30号。以致 GSE又收到了55000家光伏电站总计 达4GW的申请。这意味着2010年该 国的总装机量约为7GW，而去年仅为 1142MWs。而意大利2009年的光伏 安装量为711MW，2008为340MW, 而2007年只有60MW。2020年意大利 的太阳能光伏目标是8000MW。7GW 的光伏电量每年将产生超过8TWh 的电力，几乎占该国2.5%的电力消 耗。2007年意大利光伏发电量仅为 42GWh,几乎对该国用电量的影响几乎 为零。
这是一个非常惊人的数字， 有 两个值得注意的地方。一方面是光伏 发电产业由于其简单的设计，模块化 和可扩展性的特性，使其成为所有能 源产业中发展最迅速的。另一方面， 补贴政策的推行必须经过深思熟虑， 并根据全球市场动态进行经常性的调 整，很显然，目前FiT政策的下调速 度比之前迅速许多。太阳能发电成本 变得越来越便宜，超过所有保守的预 测。
2003年，日本是最大的光伏市 场。从2004年开始，由于慷慨的补贴 政策和完善的管理，德国成为全球光 伏市场的领头羊和光伏电池面板制造 商的救世主。2008年，西班牙是全球 第一大光伏市场，但由于FiT政策的定 价错误和管理不善，使其从2008年的 全球第一直落到2009的一潭死水。西 班牙的补贴系统没有任何机制可以根 据市场条件变化来调整补贴额度。解 决这个问题的关键是良好的规划和及 时的调整。德国目前看来在这方面做 的还不错，而意大利极有可能成为下 一个西班牙。对于意大利甚至是所有 可再生能源市场我们是否都该抱有如 此的担心呢？西班牙和捷克的教训不 能再被重复。为市场设限将为行业带 来不稳定因素，但更糟糕的是在市场 失控后再出台追溯措施，这将不可避 免的导致国家的信任危机。
FiT政策补贴只是为了帮助产业 在起步阶段能顺利发展，在产业可以 自立时就该取消。德国一直在朝着这 个方向努力，最近德国又计划在2011 年年中再次下调补贴。可以想象不久 的将来，意大利GSE也将出台类似的 措施。光伏产业可能会主动与意大利 当局谈判，请求在明年或明年之前下 调补贴，以保持投资在短期内保持稳 定，同时准备好今后几年的政策修订 计划。如果不采取任何措施，在目前 的市场状况下，意大利今年的装机总 量将超过10GW，明年甚至更多。
关于意大利市场2010年的实际 安装量，从分析师那里得到1.8GW 的数字，或者你可以相信GSE公布的 6GW。巴克莱资本的Vishal Shah表 示，“没有人知道真正到底安装了多 少兆瓦。任何自称知道确切数字的都 可能只是猜测。”总共有超过五万份 的申请，如果政府让在申请并网的 4GW的项目也享受2010年的补贴政 策，这意味着政府将负担600亿美元的 补贴，这比德国和西班牙政府负担的 补贴还要高。对于GSE将如何收拾这 个烂摊子，还有很多疑问。首先，他 们不具备合理有效的方法来审核这超 过五万份的申请。其次，Shah表示， 意大利工业协会和大部分电池板制造 商认为4GW的申请中只有25%是完成 的。
Greentech Media Research的总 经理Shayle Kann表示，GSE公布的 4GW数字中很可能并没有多少真正 在2010年中完成。但即使只完成了 25%，那加起来也有2.85GW，大大超 出了意大利政府的预期。接下来的几 个月内，我们将看到意大利政府将如 何应对，极有可能下调FiT补贴或为市 场设立严格的上限。
据报道，意大利工业部长Paolo Romani承认早前媒体报道的关于该 国太阳能产业产能的巨大飞跃被欺诈 行为所夸大。他对一家意大利媒体 表示，“正如我们担心的那样，欺 诈案件不断涌现。”飞速的扩展主 要是由于慷慨的FiT补贴所驱使，加 上很多项目赶在一月份补贴下调前抢 装。但是现在看来，原因还不仅仅 如此。“产能的扩张已经超过正常速 度，”Romani表示，“整顿行动马上 会开始。”去年九月，意大利警方在 西西里岛查获价值十九亿两千万美元 的风能和其他可再生能源的不正当资 产，这是历史上最大一宗黑手党涉案 案件。意大利Giambrone律师事务所 的律师Marco Fiore表示，“可再生能 源公司涉嫌为黑手党洗黑钱。”
意大利的FiT补贴只提供给实际的 发电量，而不是按系统安装量发放。 所以，如果电站声称有一个10MW的 项目，而实际上你有3kW，这对GSE 并没有什么影响，因为他们只会为实 际发电量支付补贴，而实际发电量是 很难造假的。但是，还是会有人钻政 策的漏洞。为了享受2010年的补贴政 策，许多开发商会声称他们的项目在 2010年完成了，但是没有并网，实际 上这些项目并没有完工，这将导致享 受2010年补贴政策的项目激增。
笔者认为，推行FiT的目的是为了 资助企业的研发成本，企业需要不断 的创新才能获利。补贴不只是为了安 装量，而是帮助推行创新。在此基础 上，衡量一个成功政策的标准，不是 看它在头几年使安装量增加了多少， 而是看是否能使安装量逐年平稳上升 同时减低成本，能否让产业更好的生 存发展。同时，笔者认为意大利市场 目前最大的问题是没有一个合乎逻辑 的补贴应对措施。换句话说，新增项 目的补贴应该根据安装量有序的下 调。比起实际安装量数字，更重要的 是意大利电力公司是否能将全部这些 项目并网以及这些项目在2011年下半 年对意大利光伏市场和光伏制造商的 影响。项目开发商作弊的问题有多普 遍？GSE将如何应对？刑事指控还是 只是将他们安排到2011年的发展计划 中？光伏设限计划到底会否实施？让 我们拭目以待吧。
Update：截止至发稿时获得的 最新消息，意大利政府宣布将不会 对意大利光伏市场设限。而有关FiT 下调方面的决定意见将被推迟到四 月份。据意大利媒体报道，“意大 利光伏产业的重大挑战即将出现。 环境部和经济发展部的代表们和意 大利光伏协会间的进一步会谈已经 被推迟至四月。”虽然不会为市场 设立8GW的年度上限，但是FiT补 贴将会在六月开始下调，只有在5 月31日前并网的项目才可以享受目 前的FiT补贴额度。
Spain Number ——The Situation of Italian Market in 2011 Gives Causes for Concern
刘珊珊（Sunny Liu）
The debate over whether a cap should be placed on Italy’s PV market or not is hotting up. While one minister has been quoted as saying there will be no cap, another is reportedly supporting the move. A final decision is expected to be reached by the end of the week. 28 Feb, it was announced that the government was considering placing an eight gigawatt (GW) cap on Italy’s PV market. There were fears that if the law was passed, it would mean an end to solar subsidies as early as this summer. According to a press release issued by the Italian Government, a congressional debate was held on 1 March to discuss the latest draft of the 2020 Renewable Energy Decree. At the debate, Stefania Prestigiacomo from Italy’s Ministry of Environment was quoted as saying: "There is no cap for photovoltaics." It is thought though, that a reduction in the current incentive scheme can be expected. However, in an interview with Italian Reuters, Italy’s Development Minister Paul Romani is in favor of introducing the cap.
GSE has issued latest forecasts on photovoltaic power installed capacity in Italy at end of 2010. It is now anticipated that cumulative installed capacity should be around 3,000 MW with over 150,000 plants producing electricity throughout the country. This would mean an increase of 1.850 MW for 2010, or 160% more than 2009. There is a catch though: given the skyrocketing demand for grid connection of new PV plants, the Italian government decided last year to warrant 2010-level incentives to all PV plants built within 2010, but not yet connected (such is the backlog of requests to the national grid), with a connection deadline of 30 June 2011. Well, on this side GSE received requests for additional 55,000 PV plants totalling an astonishing further 4,000 MW. This means that total capacity at end of 2010 is around 7,000 MW, up from just 1142 MW twelve months before. Italy installed 711 MW of solar PV in 2009, 340 MW in 2008, and only 60 MW in 2007. Italy's 2020 target for solar PV is 8,000 MW. 7 GW of PV power will yield well over 8 TWh of electricity per year, almost 2.5% of the nation’s electricity consumption. Three years ago Italy’s solar installations had virtually zero impact, with 42 GWh produced in 2007.
These are striking results, highlighting two important facts, first, solar PV power, if anyone hadn’t noticed before, is the quickest source of energy to install at industrial scale, given its simple design, modularity and scalability. Second, the incentive schemes have to be carefully planned and frequently reviewed based on global market dynamics, and it’s clear now that Feed-in Tariffs can and should be reviewed downwards much quicker than previously envisaged. Solar power is becoming cheaper and cheaper, outpacing any conservative prediction.
Japan was the largest solar market in 2003. Starting in 2004, because of a generous and well-administered feed-in tariff, Germany led the globe in solar demand and has remained the "savior market" for photovoltaic panel makers. That would be with the exception of the Spanish solar debacle, whereby Spain went from global number one in 2008 to virtually no market in 2009 due to a poorly priced and administered feed-in tariff. Spain's tariff system had no mechanism to adjust rates as market conditions changed. Germany seems to have done it right, while Spain and perhaps now Italy are examples of how to get it wrong. Is this something we should be worried about for Italy and in general for all renewable energy markets? If a lesson is to be learnt, it is that what Spain did must not be replicated. Capping the market leads to uncertain dynamics as it risks to stall the industry for many months a year, but even worse is putting in place retroactive measures, which inevitably lead to mistrust in all investment sectors for the affected country.
The very scope of Feed-in Tariffs is to stimulate a promising market in its infancy till it becomes self-sustaining. Germany has always moved in this direction and recently planned substantial reductions for mid 2011. We can imagine similar moves might be put in place soon by Italy’s GSE. The PV industry might decide to proactively negotiate with Italian authorities in order to change tariffs starting next year or before, so as to maintain investments stability in the short term while readying a revised plan for years to come. If no steps are taken, the current market conditions will lead in my opinion to something like 10,000 MW installed this year alone, and more next year.
And that's worked out well, depending on which numbers you choose to believe. The 2010 Italian market is either 1.8 GW according to analysts or 6 GW if you have faith in the GSE. Vishal Shah of Barclays Capital said in an investment note, "No one really knows how many megawatts were installed. Anyone claiming to know how many megawatts were installed with a high level of conviction is probably just guessing." There were more than 50,000 applications, and if the government pays the 2010 incentives for the entire 4 GW in applications pending grid connection, that would mean approximately $60 billion in incentive burden, according to Shah -- a figure "higher than the German/Spanish subsidy burden." There remain a lot of questions about how the GSE will deal with this fiasco. They certainly are not equipped to inspect every one of the more than 50,000 applications in any efficient way. Again, according to Shah," Most solar panel manufacturers and the Italian industry association believe that only 25 percent of the 4 GW in reservations were complete."
Shayle Kann, Greentech Media Research's Managing Director, sums it up: "There is a high probability that much of the 4 GW announced by the GSE was not actually completed in 2010. But even 25 percent of that would result in a total 2.85-gigawatt Italian market in 2010 -- much higher than the Italian government expected or desired. Over the next few months, we will see Italy's response, potentially in the form of further FIT cuts or a hard cap on the market.
According to report, Italy’s Industry Minister, Paolo Romani, has reportedly admitted the enormous jump in solar capacity the country reported two weeks ago was inflated by fraud. ‘As we feared, cases of real fraud have emerged,’ Romani said in a letter to Italian newspaper Corriere della Sera. The breakneck expansion was driven by generous feed-in tariffs, compounded by a rush to complete installations before the subsidies were cut in January. But it now appears that may not explain the whole rise. ‘It’s an abnormal acceleration,’ said Romani, according to a Reuters report based on the document sent to Corriere della Sera. ‘Controls have started immediately.’ In September, Italian police seized $1.92bn worth of wind farms and other renewable energy assets in Sicily, making it the biggest Mafia haul in history.Italy’s feed-in tariff only applies to actual power produced and does not pay for installed capacity. So, if you declare a 10 MW plant and than you actually have a 3 kW plant, it does not really matter for GSE, since they’re gonna pay you only for the energy that you will actually produce, and this is something that is nearly impossible to falsify. But, there’s always a “but”. In order to get the 2010, it was enough for developers to declare that the plant was “completed”, and not connected, within end 2010: this of course paves the way for false declarations of “end of works”, and may lead to a very high number of plants that will have access to 2010 FIT instead than to 2011 FIT.
In my opinion, the tariffs aren’t only good for installation they also help innovation. I think the purpose of the FIT for solar is to subsidize research costs and development costs. Ideally they need to be big enough for the industry to survive, but require ongoing innovation to become profitable. On that basis, a successful policy is measured not by big increases in installed capacity in early years, but in steady year over year growth and reduction in cost. The problem with Italy’s program is that there is not a logical digression built into their rate schedule. In other words, the FiT for new systems should be reduced in an orderly fashion once certain capacity levels are reached. The actual number is less important than whether the Italian electricity utility, can interconnect all of these projects and the effects this will have on the Italian solar market and on solar manufacturers in the second half of 2011. How widespread is the issue of project developers cheating? And how will the GSE deal with that -- criminal charges or just being put back into the 2011 queue? Will there be a cap for PV market? Let’s wait and see.
Update: The Italian government has announced that there will be no market cap placed on Italy’s PV industry. It added that a decision regarding the country’s feed-in tariffs (FIT) will be delayed until April. According to the EuPD, "major challenges are in store" for the Italian PV industry. It adds that representatives from the country's Ministry for the Environment and the Ministry for Economic Development, along with PV association Gruppo Imprese Fotovoltaiche Italiane (GIFI), have reported that further talks have been postponed until April. While an eight gigawatt market cap is said to no longer be an option, FIT cutbacks will be applied in June,projects are required to be connected to the grid before May
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