多晶硅疯狂扩产终食恶果 三季度价格抄底
Shine：刘珊珊（Sunny Liu）钱明今（Bruce Qian）周凝（Millet Zhou）
编者按：2011年10月第一周，多晶硅现货价格经历了自今年6月份以来最大的跌幅，标志着产业的不景气进一步恶化。彭博新能源财经（BNEF）的调查数据显示，2011年10月3日至10日，多晶硅的平均销售价格下跌了5.8%，至43.78美元/公斤。多晶硅太阳能电池的价格下跌了4.1%，至70美分/瓦。
图：2007-2011年多晶硅价格走势图（来源：Frost&Sullivan）
价格抄底
由于欧洲债务危机致使德国和意大利市场需求疲软，太阳能组件产业的制造商纷纷下调价格，而中国的多晶硅工厂也在崛起。汇丰控股表示，2010年全球组件安装量上升了135%，企业纷纷扩产，而现在需求的转移打击了部分扩产企业。
汇丰银行的分析师Sean McLoughlin表示：“太阳能产业破产的危险越来越严重，德国的优势地位正在消弱。”西德意志银行的分析师Katharina Cholewa表示，多晶硅价格在现货市场的大幅下跌表明生产商需求放缓，光伏设备产业的不景气将持续到明年。
目前多晶硅现货价格的下跌已经反映出对明年第一季度供过于求的担心。硅片厂商在利润率的压力下可能会要求对合约价格重新谈判。6英寸规格的硅片价格下跌了3.3%，至1.74美元。
由于欧洲银行的债务危机限制了太阳能项目的资金供给，高盛集团上个月将今年下半年组件需求的预测降低了18%。该机构同时还将明年的展望下调了10%，至21GW。
欧洲第二大多晶硅生产商Renewable Energy公司下跌多达8.9%，成交下降8.2%。而REC公司的首席执行官Ole Enger表示，为了避免积压库存，已经售出今年所有的产品。
而在10月初举行的台湾光伏展上，茂迪公司的首席执行官张秉横博士表示，今年四季度多晶硅价格将暴跌。四季度全球多晶硅需求疲软导致供过于求，价格将介于25-40美元/公斤。此外，到年底现货价格将低于35美元/公斤，这对多晶硅制造商来说将是一个令人不安的时期。元晶太阳能的副总裁Robin Chien也表示，2012年第一季度将是对多晶硅制造商们的一个挑战，价格可能会跌至20-35美元/公斤。
美国Hemlock、德国Wacker、韩国OCI及大陆保利协鑫(GCL)，在太阳能多晶硅端不论是产能及市占率，在2011年均被并列为最具影响力的供应者，因而被市场并列为太阳能料源的“4大金刚”。
近年来在料源厂持续扩产下，市场原预估2012年将展开太阳能料源之战，尤其是4大金刚将为市占率而力拚高下。不过，集成到下游硅片的GCL宣告，2011年第4季不排除迎合市场需求降价，除了向硅片厂宣战外，其实也为2012年的料源战提前开幕。
OCI
面对中国企业在多晶硅领域的崛起，韩国企业也不想错过分享大蛋糕的机会。韩国媒体把本国企业争先恐后进入多晶硅领域的原因总结为：不会被中国压制，可以取胜。不管这种分析是否客观，事实上韩国多晶硅产业已经在全球光伏产业链中占据了一席之地，而且市场地位还在强化。其中最有影响力的就是韩国OCI，其目标直指全球第一大多晶硅供应商的位置，而且这一目标有可能在2013年实现。
2006年6月，韩国DC化学（即OCI的前身）宣布将投资2500亿韩元（合2.6亿美元）建立工厂生产多晶硅，服务于半导体及太阳能电池行业，这也是首家韩国公司建立多晶硅工厂。当时该公司预计工厂将在2008年上半年竣工，预计产能每年3000吨。自此，公司开始在多晶硅行业迅猛发展。
2009年，韩国DC化学在成立50周年之际，更名为OCI公司。“OCI”是指“The Origin of Chemical Innovation”，即“化学创新的起源”。新名称意味着新形象、新定位，新目标。也正是借此机会，OCI的多晶硅扩张步伐不断加快。7月，2期扩厂的完工使OCI多晶硅产能首次达到1.05万吨。
2010年12月，年产量1万吨的3期工厂正式启动，OCI也开始了其试行生产，预计2011年底总年产能将达到4.2万吨。12月14日，公司宣布将在韩国群山生产基地投资14亿美元扩增多晶硅产能，建设第四套多晶硅设施，产能为2万吨/年。该设施于2010年底开建，将于2012年10月建成。另外公司也将投资约2.45亿美元使其现有的第三套多晶硅设施扩能7000吨/年，将于2011年12月完工。
2011年，OCI公司宣布将投资1.8万亿韩元再建一座工厂生产多晶硅。该工厂坐落于全罗北道的新万金工业园区，年产能为24,000公吨，将于2011年下半年动工，预计2013年12月竣工。5期新工厂无论是在规模还是24000吨年产能上都算是世界上最大的多晶硅工厂；届时公司年均总产能将达到8.6万吨，并成为全球最大的多晶硅供应商。
OCI在多晶硅产能上的大幅提升充分展示了其为了占领高纯度多晶硅市场的决心。与此同时，其订单量也飞速发展，特别是是在亚洲市场，这也成为其可持续性发展的关键。
GCL
保利协鑫集团在涉足太阳能领域之前，是一家从事环保电力运营、开发和投资的企业，控股参股18家高效能环保热电厂、1家垃圾焚烧发电厂和1家风力发电厂，托管运营协鑫集团7家电力企业。但是，集团牢牢把握了全球光伏行业强劲发展的良机，自2006年7月年产1500吨多晶硅项目的一期工程破土动工到2010年底的21000吨的年产能，保利协鑫后发制人，仅用5年时间，已成为全球极具影响力和竞争力的硅材料产品制造商和供货商。
2006年7月，年产1500吨多晶硅项目的一期工程破土动工。这标志着保利协鑫多晶硅之路的开始。2007年9月，成功生产出第一炉多晶硅。
2007年9月，年产1500吨多晶硅项目的二期工程破土动工；12月，开始计划及建设年产能达15，000吨的徐州第三期多晶硅生产设施。
2008年7月，第二期多晶硅项目试产成功；12月，徐州三期开始正式营运生产。
2009年7月，保利协鑫能源以263.5亿港元（合35亿美元）收购了江苏中能多晶硅技术开发公司，从一家发电企业转型为上游太阳能供应链的重要供应商。
从2007年第一期投产至2010年底，短短3年多的时间，多晶硅年产能迅速由原来的1500吨跃升至21000吨，产能产量位居全国第一、亚洲首位、全球第三。
2011年02月18日，保利协鑫能源欣然宣布其已批准在今明两年内投资约177亿港元于中国多晶硅及硅片设施的建设。在完成技术提升及扩大产能后，多晶硅可于2011年年底产能将提升不少于25,000吨，而于2012中产能将达至65,000吨。
保利协鑫近年来始终致力于降低多晶硅的生产成本，其从技术和规模优势同时出发，在降低多晶硅的生产成本上投入了巨大的精力，促进了多晶硅价格的下降，更填补了国内在多晶硅原料供应上的空白。
Wacker
Wacker 化工集团是一家全球运作的的德国化工集团，为独立的公司。从事多种化工和半导体材料的开发，生产和销售。它成立于1903年，公司设计，开发和生产的先进有机硅产品大约超过3000种，为欧洲，亚洲100多个国家包括美国在不同领域约3500个客户提供过服务，在产品、经验及专业知识与技能方面积累有宝贵财富。于2006年在中国和美国道康宁公司(Dow Corning) 合资成立生产硅氧烷和气相二氧化硅的工厂。第一季光伏和半导体行业的强劲需求，让Wacker集团提高了今年的收益预期: 作为世界第二大多晶硅厂商，今年第一季，Wacker的销售额达12.9亿欧元，息税前利润则是3.51亿欧元，两者的业绩都好于预期的分析，声称息税前利润比去年同期超出了119万欧元，另根据销售预报，预计全年收益会超出500万欧元
执行总监Rudolf Staudigl早先还在接受周日欧元报采访时称，“每个部门的客户需求都在高涨, 我们2010年和2011年生产的几乎都已售罄，2013年也会同样，这让我们很有信心。”
到8月时，高昂的原材料成本让公司没有实现早先的乐观预期，并担心下半年的市场低迷。据路通社的一项调查，Wacker称比起2010第二季，硅的价格涨了30%多，乙烯则涨了25%，甲醇价高了近20%，3.25亿欧元的息税前利润和1.43的净利润都低于预期水平。公司股份在法兰克福证交所市场交易中下跌了3%。
Wacker多晶硅生产的主要竞争对手包括Hemlock电子集团: 是一家由美国道康宁公司，信越半导体公司和日本三菱化学公司合资的股份公司，还有韩国的OCI公司和中国的保利协鑫公司。
Hemlock
Hemlock电子集团由两家合资企业组成：Hemlock电子公司和Hemlock Semiconductor半导体公司。公司的合资股份包括美国道康宁公司，信越半导体公司和日本三菱化学公司。这是一家首屈一指的多晶硅供应商，也生产应用于半导体器件和光伏电池，组件生产需要其他硅类产品，公司建立于1961年，位于美国密歇根洲，2009年迁址到田纳西州办公地。HSC 和HEMLOCK半导体商标由道康宁公司所有。
道康宁公司是一家领先的硅产品和基于硅技术研究和创新的厂商， 同时拥有陶氏化学公司和康宁公司。道康宁过半的收入来自美国境外。
道康宁7月发布的2011上半年的财报显示，公司销售额达32.5亿美元，净收益为3.7亿美元。作为以硅为主的创新者和生产商，其销售额由于全球持续的需求增长增长了12%，其中根据公司第二季度的财报，销售额为16.7亿美元，比去年同期提高8%，净收入为19.1亿美元，则比去年低了14%，由于原材料和能源价格的急剧上涨以及光伏业疯狂的扩产使公司的收入增长受到影响。外在的因素包括全球经济的不景气和日本的海啸和地震，还包括中东的局势都抑制了公司的业绩。但目前关于Hemlock集团的最新消息却很难看到。
重新谈判
多晶硅价格自今年3月份达到最高峰后已经下跌了45%。二季度德国和意大利削减太阳能补贴后，组件需求大幅下跌。自6月底开始，对那些没有签订长期购买合同的买家来说，价格一直徘徊在50美元大关。BNEF的分析主管Jenny Chase表示：“虽然90%的市场都签订了合同，但近期破产率增高，使得部分买家撤出并进入现货市场。”
分析机构Jefferies表示，由于太阳能市场持续疲软，硅料市场也将受到负面影响。像Wacker Chemie这样的公司除了降价已经没有别的选择。今年下半年的太阳能需求并不如之前所预期的那样强烈。因此，大多数太阳能企业今年的恶劣环境并不会有所好转。
在这样的市场条件下，分析师表示，硅料市场将会特别受到影响。组件需求疲软但供应过剩意味着企业拒绝进一步购买硅料只是时间问题。而且这种情况已经发生，如Woongjin Energy取消了与OCI的供应合同。而Wacker公司的客户SolarWorld在10月初也宣布将在卡塔尔建造自己的硅料工厂。但是否SolarWorld真的会建造这个工厂还有待商榷。也许他们正试图给Wacker压力以降低价格，甚至这只是进入阿联酋市场的一个营销策略。无论怎样，太阳能制造商们正在遭受严重的利润率压力，而这些压力也将转移到硅料生产商身上以降低长期合同价格。
Jefferies表示，Wacker公司将与其一线客户重新进行价格谈判，如Bosch、英利和SolarWorld。来自其它硅料企业的竞争，如OCI和保利协鑫等，也会增加价格压力。
目前硅料的平均现货价格为45美元/公斤，而今年年初为75美元/公斤。分析师们认为明年年初价格将进一步跌至35美元/公斤。Jefferies认为Wacker公司的价格将保持在35美元/公斤左右，若低于这个水平，许多成本较高的企业将会亏本。这就是说，如果保利协鑫这样的大型企业想要以牺牲盈利价格的代价抢占市场份额的话，也将会影响到Wacker公司的利润。而硅料价格从50美元/公斤降到到35美元/公斤之后，将为太阳能企业节省8-9美分/瓦的成本。
分析师们表示，由于Wacker公司2015年之前的订单已经全部售出，并可获得合约价值20%的预付款，所以乍一看价格下跌对该公司似乎没有什么影响。然而值得注意的是，尽管Wacker公司的多晶硅质量高于其他竞争对手，但35美元/公斤的价格也足以使Wacker的客户撕毁合同。
多晶硅料源厂若持续坚持初立合约时的精神及条款，预估第四季度其客户营运萎缩情况将更严重，这不但是让竞争对手GCL得以乘势在硅片端独大，也顺势回堵其它多晶硅竞争对手的出海口。
基于以上预测，Jefferies调低了Wacker公司今年和明年各项业务的财政预测。预计该公司今年的收益将为51.4亿欧元（之前预测为52.2亿欧元），税息折旧及摊销前利润（EBITDA）为12.2亿欧元（之前预测为13.1亿欧元）。而2012年的收益预计为50.1亿欧元，EBITDA则为9.562亿欧元，此前的预测分别为57亿欧元和14.5亿欧元。
而太阳能产业目前仍面临两大困扰，首先，BNEF的数据显示，产业供过于求的情况仍未改变。其次，Solyndra公司破产调查对政策的负面影响。光伏产业痛并快乐着，前期多晶硅价格高，太多的企业参与其中，许多上市公司也都挤进来了，但结果呢，市场规律使然，一哄而上的结果，就是大家都玩完。
Consequences of Crazy Polysilicon Expansion, Price Slump in Q3
Editor’s Note: During the first week of October, spot prices for polysilicon, the raw material used in most solar panels, posted its biggest weekly drop since June, signaling the industry’s slump may be deepening. The average selling price dropped 5.8 percent to $43.78 a kilogram on Oct. 10 from a week earlier, according to London- based Bloomberg New Energy Finance’s survey of contracts conducted from Oct. 3. Multicrystalline solar cells, which are assembled onto panels, slid 4.1 percent to 70 U.S. cents a watt.
Price Slump
Manufacturers across the solar panel industry are slashing prices as Europe’s debt crisis helps curb demand in Germany and Italy, the biggest markets, and a tide of new polysilicon plants comes on stream in China. The shift in demand is crushing some companies that ramped up capacity as global panel installations jumped 135 percent in 2010, HSBC Plc said.
“The risk of bankruptcies in the sector looms ever larger,” HSBC analyst Sean McLoughlin said. “Momentum in Germany is fading.” Tumbling polysilicon prices in the spot market suggest the photovoltaic equipment industry’s slump will extend into next year as producers adjust to slower demand, Katharina Cholewa, an analyst at WestLB AG said.
“Current price drops in spot polysilicon are likely to already reflect oversupply concerns for the first quarter of next year,” she said. “Wafers makers with margins under pressure might ask to renegotiate long-term contracts,” she said. Six-inch wafers, a benchmark for components made from polysilicon, declined 3.3 percent to $1.74.
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. last month reduced its panel demand forecasts for the second half by 18 percent as the debt crisis roiling European banks curbs the supply of finance for projects. The firm also lowered its outlook for next year 10 percent to 21 gigawatts, according to a Sept. 19 note.
Renewable Energy Corp. ASA, Europe’s second-biggest polysilicon maker, fell as much as 8.9 percent and traded down 8.2 percent. REC, which has lost 73 percent this year, has avoided building up inventory and has sold all of its output so far this year, Chief Executive Officer Ole Enger said.
At PV Taiwan, Motech CEO, P.H. Chang stated that the fourth quarter of this year will see polysilicon prices nosedive. He said that worldwide polysilicon supply is likely to exceed sluggish demand in the fourth quarter and that prices could be anywhere below $25 to $40/kg. Meanwhile, spot prices may decline to under $35/kg by year end. It will be a "troubling time" for polysilicon makers, he said. Robin Chien, vice president of TSEC Corporation added that the first quarter of 2012 will be particularly challenging for polysilicon, with prices falling to between USD$20 to $USD35 per kilogram.
Hemlock, Wacker, OCI and GCL, whether for solar polysilicon production capacity and market share, are the most important suppliers in 2011, so they have been called the "4 King Kong" in solar material market.
In recent years, continued expansion in the material market, the market had been forecast a solar material sources war in 2012, especially for the 4 King Kong. However, GCL declared to meet the market demand, they might to cut prices in Q4, the material war for the 2012 may start earlier.
OCI
In the face of the rise of Chinese enterprises in polysilicon field, Korean companies do not want to miss the opportunity to share the big cake. Korean media summarized the reason that Korean companies rush to polysilicon field as “will not be suppressed by China companies and can win.” Regardless of whether the analysis is objective, in fact, South Korean polysilicon industry has occupied a place in the global photovoltaic industry chain, and their market position is getting stronger. One of most famous companies is OCI, which aims at the position of world’s largest supplier of polysilicon, and this goal may be achieved in 2013.
In June 2006, Korean DC Chemical (the predecessor of OCI) announced that it would invest 25 billion won (260 million USA dollars) to establish polysilicon plant for the semiconductor and solar cell industry, which was the first Korean company to build polysilicon plant. At that time the plant was expected to be completed in the first half of 2008 with annual production capacity of 3,000 tons. Since then, it began rapid development in polysilicon.
In 2009, DC Chemical changed its name to OCI at the 50th anniversary. “OCI” means “the origin of Chemaical Innovation”. New name stands for new image, position and goal. By this opportunity, OCI continues to accelerate the pace of polysilicon production expansion. In July, plant expansion of the second phase completed, which make its polysilicon production capacity reached 105 million tons
In December, 2010, third phase plant with annual polysilicon output of 10,000 tons was officially launched, and OCI began its trial production. The total annual production capacity is expected to reach 4.2 million tons at the end of 2011. December 14, OCI announced 1.4 billion USA dollars would be invest in Korea base of polysilicon to build the fourth project with annual capacity of 20,000 tons per year. It was set to be built at the end of 2010, and would be completed in October, 2012. In addition, it will also invest about 245 million to increase capacity by 7,000 tons per year, which will be completed in December 2011.
In 2011, OCI announced it would invest 1.8 trillion won to build a new polysilicon plant. The plant is located in the Saemangeum Industrial Park, Jeollabuk, with the annual production capacity of 24,000 tones, and is expected to be completed in December, 2013. This 5th plant can be regarded as the world’s largest polysilicon plant both in size and capacity of 24,000 tons. When this plant completed, OCI’s total capacity annually will reach 8.6 million tons, and will be the world’s largest supplier of polysilicon.
OCI has increased significantly production capacity, which fully demonstrated its commitment to capture polysilicon market. Meanwhile, its order volume gets rapid development, especially in the Asian market, which has become the key to its sustainability.
GCL
Before involved in the field of solar power, GCL Group is a company engaged in green power operation, development and investment, holding shares of 18 high-performance environmental friendly power plants, a waste incineration power plant and a wind power plant, managing and operating 7 power plants. However, the Group firmly grasps the opportunity of strong development in global PV industry. Since the groundbreaking of the first 1,500 tons polysilicon projects in July 2006 to the annual production capacity of 21,000 tons in the end of 2010, GCL has become the world’s most influential and competitive manufacturer and supplier of silicon in just 5 years.
In July 2006, the first phase polysilicon project of 1,500 tons started. This marks the beginning of GCL polysilicon business. In September, 2007, it successfully produced polysilicon for the first time.
In September, 2007, the second phase polysilicon project of 1,500 tons broke ground. In December, the third phase project wiht annual capacity of 15,000 tons of polysilicon in Xuzhou was building according to plan.
In July, 2008, trial production of the second phase project succeeded. In December, formal operations of the third Phase project in Xuzhou started.
In July, 2009, GCL-Poly Energy paid 26.35 billion Hong Kong dollars (3.5 billion US dollars) for the acquisition of Jiangsu Zhongneng Polysilicon Technology Development Co. Ltd., and changed from solar power generation business to a an important supplier in the upstream solar chain.
From the first phase production in 2007 to the end of 2010, just in about three years, polysilicon production capacity jumped from 1500 tons to 21,000 tons, which make it ranks first in China and Asia, third in the world.
On February 18, 2011, GCL-Poly Energy announced that it has approved to invest in the next two years approximately 17.7 billion Hong Kong Dollars for polysilicon and wafer facilities in China. Upon completion of technology improvement and production capacity expansion, at the end of 2011 production capacity will increase by not less than 25,000 tons, while in 2012 the production capacity will reach 65,000 tons.
In recent years, GCL is committed to reducing the cost of polysilicon production. With technology and scale advantages, it has invested a huge effort to promote reducing the cost of polysilicon, which has made the price drop significantly, and filled the domestic polysilicon supply gap.
Wacker
Wacker Chemie Group is a German independent chemical company operating globally. It engages in the development, manufacture and marketing of a wide range of chemicals and semiconductor materials. Wacker was founded in 1903. The company designs, develops and manufactures over 3,000 highly developed specialty silicone products to serve more than 3,500 customers in diverse sectors across 100 countries in Europe, the Americas and Asia., It provides a valuable experience for product, professional expertise and skills. Has jointed venture Jointed venture with Dow Corning to produce raw materials for silicone production in China in 2006.
Strong demand from the solar and semiconductor industries buoyed first-quarter results of German specialty chemical group Wacker Chemie, leading the company to hike its profit outlook for the ongoing year: In the first three months of the year, Wacker generated sales of 1.29 billion, while EBITDA reached 351 million, both beating analyst estimates, As world's second-largest producer of polysilicon, a key raw material for the solar and semiconductor industries, said it now saw full-year earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) to exceed last year's level of 1.19 billion Euros. The company -- which previously guided for a flat EBITDA -- also stuck to its sales forecast, still expecting full-year revenues of more than 5 billion Euros.
"Customer demand remains high at all divisions," Chief Executive Rudolf Staudigl early also told Euro am Sonntag in an interview said，"Our (polysilicon) production for 2011 and 2012 is already all but sold, the same goes for parts of the 2013 production, his makes us very confident."
On Aug. High raw material costs caused Wacker to post lower-than-expected profits for the second quarter and the world's No.2 maker of polysilicon warned of slower economic growth in the second half of the year.
"Compared to Q2 2010 prices, silicon metal increased by over 30 percent, ethylene by about 25 percent and methanol but just under 20 percent," Wacker said second-quarter earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) came in at 325 million Euros while net profit reached 143 million, both below the average forecast in a Reuters poll. Shares in the company traded 3 percent lower in trade on the Frankfurt stock exchange.
Wacker 's main rivals in the production of polysilicon include Hemlock Semiconductor, a joint venture between Dow Corning, Shin-Etsu Handotai and Mitsubishi Materials, as well as Korean OCI Co Ltd (010060.KS) and China's GCL-Poly Energy Holdings.
Hemlock
The Hemlock Semiconductor Group is comprised of two joint ventures: Hemlock Semiconductor Corporation and Hemlock Semiconductor, L.L.C. The companies are joint ventures of Dow Corning Corporation, Shin-Etsu Handotai and Mitsubishi Materials Corporation. Hemlock Semiconductor is a leading provider of polycrystalline silicon and other silicon-based products used in the manufacturing of semiconductor devices and solar cells and modules. Hemlock Semiconductor began its Michigan operations in 1961 and broke ground at its Tennessee location in 2009. HSC and HEMLOCK SEMICONDUCTOR are trademarks of Dow Corning Corporation.
Dow Corning -A global leader in silicones, silicon-based technology and innovation, it is equally owned by The Dow Chemical Company and Corning, Incorporated. More than half of Dow Corning’s annual sales are outside the United States.
Dow Corning Corp. on July announced sales of $3.25 billion and net income of $370 million in the first half of 2011. Sales increased 12 percent as global demand continued to grow for the silicon-based innovator and manufacturer. Additional information about Dow Corning’s Second Quarter financial results: Sales were $1.67 billion, 8 percent higher than last year. Net income was $191 million, 14 percent lower than last year. Sharp increases in prices for materials and energy, as well as higher levels of operating expenses, negatively impacted net income growth. External factors including slowing global economies, Japan’s tsunami and earthquake, and unrest in the Middle East depressed net income results. But the latest news of this kind of chip for the Hemlock Semiconductor Group is very few.
Renegotiate Pricing
Polysilicon has tumbled by 45 percent since reaching a peak in March. Demand for panels collapsed in the second quarter after Germany and Italy cut subsidies for solar energy. Prices had hovered around the $50 mark since the end of June for buyers that have not acquired the material under long-term contracts. “Although 90 percent of the market is under contract, recent bankruptcies have taken some of the buyers under these contracts out of the market and released more product to the spot,” Jenny Chase, head of solar analysis at BNEF said.
According to Jefferies, the silicon market is expected to suffer due to the continuing weak solar conditions. Specifically, it says that polysilicon company Wacker Chemie, which has "become a solar company", has "no choice" but to renegotiate its prices. In a company note issued by analysts from Jefferies, it is now said to be "clear" that solar demand in the second half of the year is not as strong as had been expected. As such, most solar companies are predicted to continue suffering this year.
Due to these market conditions, the analysts say the silicon market will be particularly affected. "Weak demand at the module level combined with excess supply implies that it is only a matter of time before companies refuse to take further deliveries of silicon," said the company note. They say this is already happening, with Woongjin Energy, for example, canceling its supply contract with OCI. They add, "We also note Wacker client SolarWorld announced last week that it would be building its own silicon plant in Qatar. Whether or not SolarWorld will actually build this plant is open to question. "It may be that they are attempting to put pressure on Wacker to reduce prices or even a marketing ploy to enter the UAE market. Regardless it is clear that with solar manufacturers suffering severe margin pressure, the pressure will increase on silicon producers to reduce long-term contract prices."
With regards to Germany-based Wacker, because the majority of its earnings are coming from solar, the Jefferies analysts say it will have to renegotiate its pricing with its Tier 1 clients, like Bosch, Yingli and SolarWorld. Competition from new silicon entrants like OCI and GCL Poly will also create price pressure.
From Jefferies' perspective, average silicon spot prices are said to currently be USD$45/kg, having dropped from a high of $75/kg at the start of this year. The analysts believe this will further drop to $35 in the first half of next year. "We are of the opinion that prices will stay sticky around $35 for Wacker as we believe that below this level many high cost players will just not produce," they explain. "That said, if players like GCL Poly decide to capture market share at the expense of profitability prices could fall further, which will impact Wacker’s margins." They add that a drop in silicon pricing from $50 to $35 would save between eight and nine U.S. cents per watt for the solar companies.
"At first glance Wacker may seem somewhat sheltered from these price falls as it is sold out until 2015 with upfront payments of up to 20 percent of a contract value," say the analysts. "However, we caution, that at $35/KG it will cost Wacker customers to break their contracts despite the fact that Wacker polysilicon is of a higher quality than many of its competitors.
Due to these predictions, Jefferies has reduced its financial estimates across all of Wacker’s businesses for both this year and next. As such, they expect the manufacture to reap revenues of
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