在未来十年中，没有一个国家将主导太阳能市场。2000年至2009年，全球光伏需求年平均增长率高达51%，年需求从170MW到7059MW。尽管德国太阳能补贴情况改变，在西班牙FIT计划崩溃，全球经济危机困扰，融资环境低迷，就出货量而言，而非收入方面，2009年仍见增长。2010年的太阳能市场虽现疤痕但更加明智了。目前由于产能过剩，模块平均销售价格仍在下滑，很多公司甚感压力。但经历了2009年的痛苦并仍处于洗牌和整合的情况下，全球太阳能市场将更大更健康，并为一个新的十年增长做准备。以后将实现电网平价，在一些高电价市场亦开始蔓延.
2010年全球光伏需求将增长58%：克服金融危机，全球光伏需求将在2010年将增长58%达到11218MW。2010年德国光伏需求将达到顶峰：德国将继续在2010年最后的市场，安装5541兆瓦，其中大部分将在上半年完成。2010年下半年入网补贴削减，加上2011年年度下降，将迫使模块平均销售价格严重下降，只有低成本生产商才能在德国市场竞争。2010年意大利将继续成为第二大光伏市场：2010年意大利的需求将猛增至1,487MW。和德国市场下半年的需求降低一样，意大利的需求也将受入网补贴调整的影响。
2010年将标志着全球需求扩散的开始：鉴于过去数年一直由单一的“救世主”国维持全球市场，2010年将标志着一个跨阶层需求开始全球扩散并日益增长的市场。新的太阳能光伏产业的气候，经历着一个从不稳定到繁荣的跨步，与日渐成熟的政策保持一致。
Between 2000 and 2009, global photovoltaic demand grew at an average annual rate of 51 percent, rising from 170 MW to 7,059 MW. It's hard to believe that just ten years ago, the global solar market was 170 megawatts. That's now the size of a typical utility-scale installation. Or a small solar factory.Back in the ancient solar era of 2005 and 2006, there was a common refrain, amongst even the more conservative solar analysts, and it went like this:"Demand is essentially unlimited."That's what the German tariff situation did to normally staid pundits and manufacturers.Since then, the solar market has lived through the annus miserabilis of 2008, the collapse of the Spanish FiT program, a global economic meltdown, and a comatose financing environment. Despite those factors, 2009 was a growth year in terms of megawatts shipped, if not in terms of revenue, and the solar market has emerged scarred but wiser in 2010. Module ASPs are still going to continue to drop due to an overcapacity situation and many companies will feel margin pressures. But, having lived through the pain of 2009 and while still in the midst of shakeout and consolidation, the global solar market will come through this bigger and healthier and poised for a new decade of growth. Grid parity will become a reality, starting in a few high-electricity rate markets and will spread from there.Greentech Media Research analyst Shayle Kann has just authored an exhaustive study of global photovoltaic demand and the findings are encouraging.
Global PV demand will grow 58 percent in 2010: Overcoming the ?nal throes of the financial crisis, global PV demand will grow 58 percent in 2010 to 11,218 MW.
German PV demand will peak in 2010: Germany will remain the market of last resort in 2010, installing 5,541 MW, most of which will come in the first half of the year. Feed-in tariff cuts in the second half of 2010, combined with annual digression in 2011, will force module ASPs down severely, and only low-cost producers will be able to compete in the German market.
Italy will remain the second-largest PV market in 2010: Italian demand will spike to 1,487 MW in 2010, maintaining its position as the second-largest national market. Italian demand will be spurred by forthcoming feed-in tariff reductions in 2011 as well as fallout from the German market’s second half demand loss.
2010 will mark the beginning of a global diffusion of demand: Whereas the past few years have been characterized by a single “savior” country essentially keeping the global market a?oat, 2010 will mark the beginning of a global diffusion of demand across a class of growing markets.
The report also analyzes the global markets, country by country, based on the three factors that truly determine demand -- technology, policy and financing.
The new solar PV climate is one of an industry taking big steps from erratic exuberance to mature consistency in growth and policy.
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